What Are Brushfire Polls? Meaning, Examples & How to Conduct Them
By Moradeke Owa
| Last updated:
Jun 19
|
8 min read
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We have seen public opinion shift dramatically as a result of a major event countless times. This opinion shifts significantly impacts important decisions such as campaign strategy, policy development, and other issues.
So, how can you measure public opinion in real-time to make the right decision or policy? Brushfire polls are short and frequent surveys that capture the immediate public sentiment on a specific issue or candidate.
Brushfire polls are a great way to find out what people think about a concept or candidate. They provide you with relevant information about public reactions to events and help you in optimizing your strategy to win them over.
Let’s take a deep dive into what Brushfire polls are, their examples, and how to conduct them effectively.
A brushfire poll helps you to collect public opinion on current issues. It is mostly used to gauge people’s opinions in political campaigns, social movements, and crisis management.
Brushfire polls provide real-time insight into the public’s ever-changing sentiments. This allows you to modify your campaign strategy or messaging to portray your policy, product, or candidate in a positive light to the public.
One of the most important features of brushfire surveys is that they are conducted almost immediately after a major event happens. They are typically conducted within a few hours or minutes after the event.
For example, a short poll conducted immediately after a major political debate to assess the public’s perception of the candidates. This allows the candidate campaign team to see their progress in the polls, and the demographics leaning towards them.
Another key feature of Brushfire polls is their flexibility. They are designed to be flexible, allowing you to quickly design questions and gather responses in response to trending topics.
Brushfire polls are event-specific; they are not a representation of respondent opinions on general topics or preferences. They also typically use a smaller sample size than other polls, which means they have a higher margin of error and less reliability.
Related: How to Make Election Predictions with Political Surveys
The timing and frequency of brushfire polls differ significantly from traditional benchmark polls and tracking polls. Benchmark polls happen at the start of a campaign to assess each candidate’s initial level of support as well as their strengths and weaknesses.
Tracking polls, on the other hand, are taken at regular intervals during the campaign to measure changes in voter preferences and opinions over time. Brushfire polls are designed to capture people’s immediate reactions to a specific event.
For example, a tracking poll will measure a candidate’s approval ratings over a month, while a Brushfire poll will be taken immediately after a candidate makes a controversial statement to gauge the public’s opinion shift.
Read Also: What are Benchmark Polls in Survey Research?
A major application of brushfire polls is their ability to provide immediate insights into breaking news, new trends, and political developments. For example, if you are a political candidate and a scandal involving your opponent breaks out, a brushfire poll helps you see if its increases your chances of winning the election.
Brushfire polls also allow you to see how well different messages or strategies resonate with the public following an event. Let’s say you are a journalist, and a new story or angle surfaces that may change public perception of an issue, a Brushfire poll can help you see how different sources or evidence influence your credibility and trustworthiness.
Brushfire polls are also a valuable tool for market research; they help you adapt and respond to your audience’s changing environment and needs.
For example, if your competitor brand is launching a new product, a brushfire poll allows you to see how this impacts your customer satisfaction and loyalty. If your customers are leaning towards your competitor, figure out the competitive advantage and use that information to improve your product and increase customer retention.
For You: Opinion Poll Template
Brushfire polls are very event-specific, so they need well-thought strategies to avoid bias and ensure valid results. Here are some of the methodological considerations to help you design an effective brushfire poll:
Defining the target population and selecting a representative sample of likely voters is one of the most important methodological considerations for Brushfire polls. For example, following a presidential debate, brushfire polls focus on those who are most likely to vote in the upcoming election, unlike benchmark polls, which typically use the general population.
Brushfire polls are time-sensitive, requiring quick data collection techniques. You would need to use easily accessible data collection methods such as online surveys, mobile apps, and social media to quickly reach respondents and collect their feedback.
Let’s say your app has a downtime and you want to see if your customers’ perception of your brand changes after the downtime. You could send a brushfire poll as a push notification to measure their shift in brand perception.
When conducting Brushfire polls, ensure the questions are concise and easy to understand.
You’re using high-traffic data collection platforms like mobile apps or social media, so respondents tend to have short attention spans. The simpler and shorter the questions, the more likely you are to get valid and reliable responses.
You also need to analyze the survey data quickly to derive actionable insights while the event or topic is still relevant. This requires using an efficient data collection and analytics platform to provide timely results.
Brushfire polls have to account for respondents’ geographic distribution. For example, in presidential elections, you may need to oversample voters in competitive and influential swing states or districts.
If you do not actively solicit the majority of the population’s opinion in such states and districts, you may draw incorrect conclusions. These inaccurate conclusions may cause you to overestimate your candidate’s perception, causing you to lose the election.
There are several methods for analyzing brushfire polls, but the simplest is descriptive statistics, such as percentages and frequencies. For example, you can calculate the percentage of respondents who agree with a new policy after hearing about it in the news.
You can also analyze brushfire poll data using comparative analysis. This is when you compare the results of the brushfire poll across different segments or demographics to see if there are any trends or changes in how people feel.
For example, if you’re launching a beauty product for women in their 30s-50s, comparing responses from different age groups can help you determine if your product fits into your target market.
These are statistical tests and procedures that use sample data to draw conclusions about the population, such as hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, correlation, and regression. They estimate the relationship, difference, or effect of one or more variables on another variable.
For example, the effect of respondent demographics on their political affiliations. This could help you figure out what drives voters’ decisions and structure your campaign strategy to fit it.
The purpose and audience determine the tone, style, format, and level of detail of your report.
The main message and key points are the summary and highlights of your analysis and interpretation. They should be short, accurate, and relevant to your target audience and purpose.
It’s all the data, stats, charts, tables, graphs, and quotes that support your main idea and key messages. It should be accurate, up-to-date, and easy to understand for you and your audience.
Public opinion changes over time, most people become less interested in a topic or event after a while. So, the timing and frequency may affect the validity of the results.
The nonresponse bias is the difference between the opinions of those who responded to the survey and those who did not. While response bias is the tendency of respondents to respond in a way that does not accurately reflect their true opinions.
These biases influence the accuracy and representativeness of the results because of such as low response rate, social desirability, acquiescence, or leading questions.
Read More – Response vs Non Response Bias in Surveys + [Examples]
This is any disparity between what the survey questions measure and what they are supposed to measure. Factors such as question ambiguity, misunderstanding, or misinterpretation influence how well respondents understand the questions, which can negatively influence the validity and reliability of the results.
Related – Systematic Errors in Research: Definition, Examples
Case Study 1
The Republican National Committee (RNC) ran a series of brushfire polls in 2016 to gauge support for its nominee, Donald Trump.
According to polls, Trump was unpopular with many Republican voters. Using this information the RNC developed an effective strategy to mobilize Trump supporters on Election Day.
Case Study 2
In 2018, the Sierra Club, an environmental advocacy group, performed a series of brushfire polls on carbon taxes. The results showed that there was broad support for the carbon tax, which motivated Sierra Club to rally support for its legislative efforts.
Brushfire polls allow you to quickly gauge the public sentiment towards a specific trend, or candidate. However, these polls have their limitations. Without careful methodological considerations when designing and analyzing them, you’re prone to get biased results and draw misleading conclusions.
Brushfire polls are more seamless when you use a comprehensive tool to collect and analyze your responses. This puts you in a better position to achieve your campaign objectives and win elections or gain public approval.
Ready to create your own Brushfire poll? Get started with Formplus now for free!
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